The Long Road to COP30 in Belém
From the first conference in 1972 to today, the path of international climate policy has often been rocky – but it has also been marked by consensus and groundbreaking progress. Now the 30th climate conference is approaching, and global tipping points are looming. Countries must deliver – and they can, as this review shows.
The first major UN conference on global environmental issues took place in Stockholm in 1972. At that time, oil companies already knew with astonishing precision what damage fossil fuels would cause. However, they deliberately kept their findings on fossil-fuel-induced global warming under wraps and repeatedly cast doubt on climate science.
It took time for climate awareness to take root. The international community achieved its first success in 1987 with the Montreal Protocol: This global agreement banned chemicals that damage the ozone layer. The following year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded, publishing its first assessment report in 1990. Its central message was that international cooperation is needed to combat climate change. This may sound trivial today, but it remains as crucial as ever.
The UN achieved a major breakthrough in 1992 in New York with the adoption of the UNFCCC climate convention. To this day, this remains the key international treaty for slowing global warming and managing the consequences of climate change. For the first time, binding emission reduction targets were set for industrialized countries.
Also in 1992, the groundbreaking Earth Summit took place in Rio de Janeiro, bringing together politicians, diplomats, scientists, media representatives and NGOs from 179 countries. Running parallel to this was the Global Forum of Civil Society, where NGOs presented their vision of a just and sustainable future. The Earth Summit introduced the concept of economically, socially and ecologically “sustainable development,” which was revolutionary at the time, and brought new perspectives on how we produce and consume, how we live and work, and how we make decisions. The conference culminated in the Rio Declaration, which, even then, was forward-looking in introducing Agenda 21 to prepare the world for the challenges of the 21st century.
From the Brandenburg Gate to the Eiffel Tower
The first official World Climate Conference took place in Berlin in 1995. It went down in history as “COP1” (Conference of the Parties) and laid the foundation for the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997. This protocol legally obliged industrialized countries to reduce emissions for the first time. While countries were primarily expected to achieve their targets through domestic measures, they could now also use market-based mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism. However, even before Kyoto came into force in 2005, the US withdrew from the agreement. Then-President George W. Bush was unhappy that industrialized nations had to do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than developing countries. On the other side of the Atlantic, European countries adopted the EU Emissions Trading System. With the EU ETS, the EU wanted and still wants to reduce CO2 emissions in the industrial sector based on the polluter pays principle by means of financial incentives and the trading of emission rights (certificates) in the industrial sector.
In 2007, the fourth assessment report, the most comprehensive and detailed UN report on climate change to date, was published. The central message: Climate change has been proven to be caused by the fossil fuel economy; the changes are man-made. In response, a comprehensive package was adopted in 2010 to support developing countries in coping with climate change with funds that were to reach at least US$100 billion annually for climate protection and adaptation by 2020. A central component of this was the Green Climate Fund.
This was followed in 2014 by the fifth assessment report, which warned that climate change is likely to have severe and irreversible impacts on people and ecosystems. It provided the scientific basis for the groundbreaking, legally binding Paris Climate Agreement adopted at COP21 in 2015. The agreement aims to limit the average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a maximum increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The agreement includes adaptation to climate change, climate-compatible alignment of all financial flows, and financial and other support for developing countries, including technology transfer and capacity building.
The shock was followed by a climate emergency
In 2017, the US withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement under then-President Donald J. Trump. It came as a shock, given that the special report on 1.5 degrees published in 2018 showed how irreversible and devastating the consequences of climate change would be if the Paris climate target were not met. While the world's strongest economy abandoned climate policy, the European Parliament declared a “climate emergency.” From then on, the EU Commission was to ensure that new legislative proposals were in line with the 1.5-degree target. In response, the Commission adopted the Green Deal in 2019 for the socially acceptable transformation of the economy, energy supply, transport and industry – with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030 so that Europe becomes climate neutral by 2050 at the latest.
In 2021, President Joe Biden brought the US back to the climate policy negotiating table. The world breathed a sigh of relief, and in Glasgow, the international community agreed on the goal of “climate neutrality” that increased funding for vulnerable developing countries and phased out investments in new oil and gas projects. However, it was unable to agree on a clear phase-out of coal use. In 2022, the Loss & Damage Fund was established in Sharm el-Sheikh to provide vulnerable countries with rapid, uncomplicated support in coping with damage and losses caused by extreme weather events such as storms and flash floods. So far, the financial resources contributed to the fund by a few countries are far below expectations and insufficient.
In 2023, governments in Dubai agreed to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030 (by transitioning away from fossil fuels). Finally, in 2024 in Baku (Azerbaijan), it was agreed to triple international climate finance to 300 billion from 2035. This was the minimum target. However, even the current target of 100 billion is still out of reach. The actual value of the funds provided amounts to only around 35 billion US dollars, since two-thirds of climate finance is not provided as grants but as repayable loans. While this supports important, sustainable projects, it also exacerbates the already high levels of debt in developing countries. In addition, even the contributions made so far are not “new and additional” to development cooperation, but are financed from it. Even if there are synergies between climate and development priorities, global warming is driving up the costs of improved infrastructure, climate-adapted agriculture, e-mobility, disaster prevention and reconstruction, forest protection and reforestation, which go far beyond the original goal of poverty reduction.
The long road to Belém
In the run-up to the upcoming COP30 in Belém, Brazil, from November 10-21, 2025, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned of the highest CO2 concentration ever measured in the atmosphere, citing not only man-made emissions but also increasing forest and bush fires as causes. At the same time, forests and oceans are becoming less and less able to absorb CO2 – another consequence of climate change.
While the 1.5 degree mark has already been exceeded, geopolitical tensions are overshadowing global efforts to protect the climate. Although NGOs, climate scientists and many countries are calling for ambitious measures, a lamentable counter-movement led by populist decision-makers and a growing number of conservative think tanks, research institutes, business associations and foundations is actively opposing climate science and policy. Despite all the economic and environmental arguments in favor of renewable energies, the production and use of oil, gas and coal remains far too high. And Brazil, of all countries, granted new oil drilling licenses in the Amazon shortly before its own COP.
At COP30, governments must set the world on course for a “just transition” – a fair change in the economy and society. A transition is needed that goes far beyond the energy sector and that, in addition to renewable energy sources, promotes the circular economy, e-mobility, low-carbon construction, organic farming, sustainable food systems and biodiversity. This requires serious national climate plans (NDCs) – which are not a priority for most countries. As a result, the world is currently heading for an average temperature increase of 2.6 degrees Celsius.
