The effects of the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are once again hitting countries and people in the Global South disproportionately harder than those in the Global North. This was already the case during the COVID-19 pandemic.

People feel the consequences in the short term on their plates, and in the long term in their fields. Development cooperation and emergency aid are also feeling the impact, as revealed in a recent survey of Helvetas’ partner countries and an assessment by Robert Mardini, former Director-General of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and a new Helvetas Board member.

Since Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, one of the most important transport routes for crude oil has been closed. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 20-25% of global oil transported by sea passes through the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with 80% of that destined for markets in Asia. Twenty percent of global liquefied natural gas also takes this bottlenecked route. Options for bypassing it range from very limited to nearly impossible, depending on the country.

Prices are rising — and if not, there’s fear they will rise

As oil becomes scarcer, fuels are also becoming more expensive, and fertilizers derived from them are becoming scarcer. Higher fuel costs are particularly evident in Helvetas’ project countries. For example, gasoline prices have risen by 39% in Nepal and by up to 70% in Guatemala and Honduras. People in Myanmar are paying up to 80% more for fuel. This is complicating reconstruction efforts following the 2025 earthquake. Especially since rising transportation costs are driving up the price of construction materials by up to 30%. In some places, irrigation systems and water pumps powered by generators are also failing. 

Governments are responding differently to the shortages: Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Jordan, Uzbekistan and Bolivia are cushioning the abrupt price hikes — partially or entirely — through government subsidies. Import duties on fuel have been lowered in Nepal. But even in less severely affected countries, mobility has been restricted as transportation costs rise. Ethiopia, Myanmar and Nepal are also rationing gasoline or mandating work-from-home arrangements or reduced workdays to lower gasoline consumption.

This is also the case in Honduras, where schools are partially shifting back to online learning, as they did during the COVID-19 pandemic. Other countries, such as Mozambique or Tajikistan — where gasoline prices are already higher than in neighboring nations — are attempting to reassure the public that prices will remain stable. But even if prices haven’t risen yet in those and other countries, fear among the population is growing. In many countries, “gas hoarding” is already being observed: Even half-full tanks are being refilled immediately in anticipation of prices going up. What is certainly increasing is the length of the lines of cars at gas pumps. And government reassurances are doing little to alleviate the uncertainty.

Increased food insecurity

Even small price increases can be devastating for families living in poverty, who already must stretch their money as far as possible. As fuel becomes more expensive, so do all the goods that are transported using it. Countries that are heavily dependent on imports are particularly vulnerable to price shocks and supply shortages. In many areas, prices for daily necessities such as grains, vegetables and cooking oil are already rising. In Ethiopia, these prices have already risen by more than 10%; and in Nepal, by as much as 50%. Helvetas’ staff have observed that poorer people are increasingly buying cheaper food or skipping meals — as is typical during crises. 

In southern Ethiopia, where a prolonged drought is depleting livelihoods, Helvetas is already distributing livestock feed and veterinary medicine to nomadic herders. Helvetas stands ready to provide emergency aid in other countries as well if the situation worsens.

But the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for more than just oil transport: About one-third of the world’s fertilizers are also transported through it. Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on synthetic fertilizers, so this puts further pressure on food and food security. Without these fertilizers, less is sown and less grows. This affects future harvests — and once again, the food situation of the people affected. The only positive aspect is that this crisis is amplifying the call to find alternative solutions, such as organic fertilizers. 

The role of NGOs

The crises flaring up everywhere are also affecting development cooperation and emergency aid. Robert Mardini, Director of the Geneva University Hospitals, is the newest member of the Helvetas Board of Directors. The former Director-General of the ICRC has long been active in humanitarian aid and provides context on this situation. 

What are the humanitarian consequences of the war in Iran for people in the Global South? 

My experience at the ICRC taught me that major crises always hit those who are already poor and vulnerable particularly hard. The war in Iran is no exception. Its humanitarian consequences extend far beyond the country’s borders and are already being felt strongly in the Middle East and the Global South.

Why?

First, Iran is a key regional player. It is a hub for energy, trade, migration and humanitarian flows that directly affect countries that are already vulnerable. Ongoing destabilization has cascading effects: Energy and food prices rise, supply chains are disrupted, and pressure mounts on fragile states with limited fiscal leeway. The price is paid above all by the poorest households, who are already suffering from inflation, food insecurity or debt.

Second, regional crises invariably lead to population movements. Whether it’s internally displaced persons, refugees, labor migrants or people in protracted transit situations —these movements often concentrate in countries of the Global South, which are themselves confronted with conflicts, political instability or the consequences of climate change. During numerous visits to these countries, I have seen how multiple crises exhaust local capacities and threaten social balances.

And ultimately, the climate factor must also be taken into account. Communities already affected by drought, water scarcity or extreme weather events are significantly less resilient to geopolitical and economic crises. A distant war can accelerate local humanitarian crises by exacerbating food shortages, weakening healthcare systems or further fueling resource conflicts.

What role do international NGOs like Helvetas play in this?

International organizations like Helvetas are particularly important in such situations. They provide assistance in acute emergencies, while also working preventively and for the long term. This means they help people better cope with crises. And they strengthen local systems — such as water supply, agriculture, healthcare and education — and the people responsible for them, so that these systems can cushion the impact of future shocks. 

Helvetas plays a vital role at the intersection of humanitarian aid, development cooperation and climate adaptation. In contexts where crises overlap, this ability to devise integrated responses — that are locally rooted and supported by local partnerships — becomes a central prerequisite.

Finally, NGOs also bear responsibility in the realm of political advocacy: They can remind people that armed conflicts and global crises are not just geopolitical abstractions; they shatter the realities of people’s lives — often far from the public eye. Placing these realities at the center of public and political debate is an integral part of our shared mission.

Do you think the boundaries between emergency aid and development cooperation are getting increasingly blurred? 

I have often been confronted with the notion that humanitarian aid and development cooperation are two different things. That is a myth. In protracted armed conflicts, for example, these two approaches frequently overlap. We must not think only of emergency aid here. Even in acute crises or disasters, it is essential to adopt a long-term perspective and to strengthen the resilience of communities and systems.

What is your assessment of the cuts in development cooperation and the attacks on humanitarian law and multilateralism? 

The situation is alarming. We are seeing significant polarization, an erosion of international rules and a worrying decline in funding. We must reinvent ourselves, diversify our funding sources and build new partnerships. Yet despite these uncertainties, there are also positive developments. They come from the local communities themselves. Their solidarity and ability to drive projects forward, with the support of organizations like Helvetas, make it possible to develop concrete solutions. That inspires me and is a source of hope.

Robert Mardini is the director of Geneva University Hospitals. From 2020 to 2024, he was Director-General of the International Committee of the Red Cross. He is a civil engineer who has coordinated programs in over 40 countries from 1997 onwards and was, among other things, responsible for the Middle East and served as a permanent observer at the UN.